Is it generally possible to identify a single root cause for major incidents in complex systems?

Identifying a single root cause for major incidents in complex systems is generally considered to be very challenging, leading to the assertion that it is usually impossible. Complex systems often have numerous interconnected components and variables, and incidents can arise from a combination of these factors.

In practice, the behavior of such systems is influenced by interactions between different elements, which can mask the identification of a singular cause. For example, a failure may stem from a software bug that interacts poorly with a hardware configuration, compounded by a specific user action. This interconnectivity makes it difficult to isolate one single cause, as it may be a culmination of several factors working together.

The nature of complex systems often results in incidents that represent emergent behavior—where the system functions in unexpected ways due to these interactions. This reality reinforces the view that, while a thorough investigation might yield insights, pinpointing one exact root cause is typically unrealistic. Thus, in this context, stating that it is usually impossible accurately reflects the complexities involved in diagnosing major incidents.